Bets and Borders: How Wars Reshape Sports Odds

Geopolitical tensions have long influenced international sport, but in recent years—especially since 2022—the effects of war, sanctions and boycotts have increasingly penetrated the world of betting. As of June 2025, the sports betting industry is navigating a landscape where geopolitical shifts directly affect odds, team compositions, and even entire tournament structures. This article explores how armed conflicts and international relations reshape the betting market with concrete examples and data-backed insights.

Political Conflicts and National Team Absences

Bookmakers rely on consistent data and historical performance when setting odds. However, when national teams are suspended from international play—such as Russia’s ongoing exclusion from UEFA and FIFA competitions—bookmakers must adjust entire betting lines. This absence leads to increased volatility in odds for qualifying matches and rebalances the perceived strength of other teams.

The war in Ukraine continues to impact the availability and preparedness of Ukrainian national and club teams. While Ukraine participates in international competitions, fixture relocations and logistical issues disrupt training and home advantage. Bookmakers have factored in these irregularities, leading to wider spreads in odds compared to pre-war metrics.

Iran, too, has experienced isolation in certain tournaments due to political tensions. In 2024, multiple friendlies and qualifying matches were cancelled, resulting in fewer data points for odds calculations. As a result, betting lines for Iranian teams in AFC qualifiers are notably broader, with increased margins due to higher uncertainty.

Market Adjustments When Countries Are Sanctioned

When a country is sanctioned, it doesn’t only affect athletes’ travel or participation—it alters betting access, liquidity, and the volume of wagers. Russian betting companies, for example, lost access to international odds feeds in 2022. By 2025, the effects are still being felt: international sportsbooks have limited data on Russian domestic leagues, making their odds significantly less sharp and often more cautious.

From a bettor’s perspective, sanctions reduce transparency. When media coverage and scouting reports are limited, sharp bettors lose access to key signals. This has led to increased arbitrage opportunities and higher closing line discrepancies—particularly in second-tier tournaments and youth competitions.

As a result, major European bookmakers have removed some markets from sanctioned regions altogether. Others apply stricter maximum bets or dynamic margins to protect against informational asymmetry. This cautious strategy reflects a broader trend of risk-aversion in politically unstable betting environments.

Squad Changes and Player Mobility During War

Conflicts often lead to mass player departures, injuries, or retirements, all of which influence betting markets. The Ukrainian Premier League, for example, saw over 50 international players leave between 2022 and 2024. This exodus affected not only the strength of clubs but also reduced the predictability of outcomes, forcing bookmakers to widen pre-match odds spreads.

In 2023–2025, Georgian and Armenian clubs also adjusted their line-ups in response to renewed tensions in the South Caucasus. The knock-on effect has been a dip in club coefficients in European competitions and more cautious odds from sportsbooks when these teams face continental opposition.

Player drafts in North African leagues—particularly in Libya and Sudan—have been suspended due to instability. Bettors report reduced line availability and decreased betting limits on affected matches. These limitations correlate directly with data gaps and operational risk faced by bookmakers.

Impact on Live Betting and In-Play Markets

In-play betting relies on up-to-the-second data, which becomes less reliable in unstable regions. During conflict-related blackouts or partial suspensions, live betting feeds may experience delays or complete dropouts. This happened in 2024 during Ukrainian domestic matches when air-raid warnings interrupted play.

Bookmakers now pre-program automatic suspensions for matches in high-risk countries. If instability increases during the match, betting markets freeze immediately, protecting the bookmaker but frustrating bettors. This reactive behaviour also affects the flow of capital into these markets.

In response, some sportsbooks reduce or even eliminate live betting options for fixtures played in politically sensitive areas. This trend was particularly visible during the 2025 AFC Cup, where several Middle Eastern matches lacked full in-play offerings.

Boycotts, Fan Protests and Their Betting Implications

Sporting boycotts can reshape entire tournament dynamics. In 2023, multiple federations boycotted matches involving Belarus, citing its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Bookmakers responded by removing suspended fixtures and reallocating odds across remaining matches, inflating odds for unaffected teams due to changes in tournament structure.

Fan protests also influence match atmospheres, sometimes leading to disruptions or even postponements. In 2024, several German Bundesliga fixtures were delayed due to Palestine-Israel protest actions. These changes were often last-minute, forcing sportsbooks to readjust or void bets post-facto.

Beyond outright boycotts, symbolic protests—such as shirt changes, kneeling or silent tributes—often shift fan sentiment. This, in turn, affects emotional betting patterns, with an uptick in contrarian bets placed on the perceived “villain” team, skewing closing odds by up to 7% in major cases.

Risk Management in a Volatile Era

Modern sportsbooks employ AI-powered risk engines to respond to geopolitical developments. When a conflict escalates, systems automatically recalculate risk factors across national and club competitions. This is visible in dynamic margin increases in affected regions, as seen in Israeli football odds post-Gaza escalation in May 2025.

Operators now hire geopolitical analysts to forecast conflict-related risks to sporting schedules. This human insight complements algorithmic models and allows more informed odds setting. It’s a strategy particularly employed by Tier-1 bookmakers with global exposure.

Ultimately, political instability doesn’t just move borders—it redefines probability. For bettors and bookmakers alike, understanding these shifts is no longer optional but essential for navigating the modern sports betting landscape.